Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Forecasting Technique Part2


ACCA F2 - Management Accounting




Correlation and Coefficient of correlation
Variables in two different datasets/groups/population, which are not controlled by the experimenter may be related to each other. The measure of relation between two variables is correlation. E.g. temperature and the sales of ice-cream. Here, both the temperature and sales are not under the control of experimenter and applying our common sense we know the rise in temperature increases sales and the fall in temperature decreases sales. This type of correlation is positive correlation.

Now, the question is how strongly the two variables are correlated? Coefficient of correlation measures strength of relationship. Its value range from +1.0 (perfect positive co-relation) to 0 (no correlation to -1 (perfect negative co-relation). The higher the value towards +1 the stronger the positive relationship and…….

The approach for correlation calculation using Excel 2007 is same as using regression. For the manual calculation, the following formula is used for calculating correlation between two variables X and Y.
The simple correlation coefficient "r"
r = (n ∑xy - ∑x ∑y) / √ ( (n∑x2 - (∑x)2) (n∑y2 - (∑y)2) )

Main disadvantage of correlation coefficients is that it only measures linear relationship and coefficient only tells about the relationship but not - what caused the relationship and how one variable effect others.

Correlation studies the performance relationship between two members of a group/team/ project and as well to the spread of financial contagion from one market to another. A simple correlation is a numerical measure of linear relationship between two variables. A partial correlation measures relation of one dependent variable and one independent variable form sets of variables, assuming all other independent variables are constant. A multiple correlation study the relation between sets of variables (i.e. the study of three or more than three variables).





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