Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Risk of Uncertainty


ACCA P5 Advance Performance Management



There are various types of risks in business. E.g. Governance risk, Operational risk, Compliance risk, Market risk, Reputational risk, Financial risk, Audit risk etc. All risks are not quantifiable. Risks that are quantifiable are measured by statistical tool called Standard deviation.
Quantifiable Risk = Standard deviation

Stat is always fun to learn. Mathematical calculations are the easy part to enhance performance in any exam. However, the conditions presented may be distorted in order to examine the know-how of the candidate. So, setting up the scenario, working pattern and extracting right numerical values are very important in answering the questions. And by the end candidates should be able to interpret and implement the values arrived by calculation in the given scenario.

Standard deviation is statistical tool, which measures the risk of a project/investment. Higher value of standard deviation reflects higher risk associated with the project and lower value represents lower risk. There is tradeoff between risk and return. Risk is directly linked to return. Higher the risk, higher the return and lower the risk, lower the return.
Standard Error: It comes into operation where sample is drawn with replacement from large population the standard error of sample mean for large population. Standard deviation of the sampling distribution of sample statistic is known as its standard error of the statistic.
Standard Error of mean = Standard Deviation /(sample size 1/2)    ……… sample with replacement

Uncertainty: As life is uncertain so do the business activities. Like risk not every uncertain condition are quantifiable. However, there are numerous so called quantifiable situations where we can use various statistical tools to evaluate the best possible situation that matches individual’s choice. These are described below with links provided for detail study:




Ø  Payoff Table and Decision Tree: I love to say that – “Table is made of tree. / Tree is used to make table. This statement is just an informal connotation to reflect interrelationship between Payoff table and Decision Tree. Visit the link provided for detailed subject matters.






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